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Tampa Bay Rays Stadium Withdrawal and Florida CRE Trends 2025
The Tampa Bay Rays’ decision to step away from the proposed $1.3 billion Tropicana Field stadium project has reopened the conversation around one of St. Petersburg’s most valuable redevelopment sites. At the same time, other areas in Tampa Bay are seeing notable commercial real estate activity, from new industrial builds in Drew Park to major acquisitions by BayCare Health System.  This article breaks down the key developments shaping Florida’s commercial real estate outlook for the remainder of 2025 highlighting opportunities, risks, and market shifts investors should be watching closely. Tampa Bay Rays’ Stadium Developments ​The recent withdrawal of the Tampa Bay Rays from the proposed $1.3 billion stadium project has reignited discussions about the future of the Tropicana Field site in St. Petersburg. This 86-acre property, located in the Historic Gas Plant District, presents a significant redevelopment opportunity that has attracted interest from various developers.​ Potential Developers and Proposed Projects City-Led Redevelopment Initiatives The City of St. Petersburg has been proactive in exploring redevelopment options for the Tropicana Field site. Collaborating with HKS Architects, the city developed two conceptual master plans: one incorporating a baseball stadium and another without. These plans aim to create a vibrant mixed-use district featuring residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.  Community Considerations Local community groups, such as Faith in Florida, are advocating for redevelopment plans that prioritize affordable housing, job creation, parks, and healthcare facilities, especially for descendants of the Historic Gas Plant District’s original residents. Their involvement underscores the importance of inclusive development that honors the area’s cultural and historical significance. ​ The future of the Tropicana Field site is at a pivotal juncture. With multiple stakeholders expressing interest and the community emphasizing equitable development, the City of St. Petersburg faces critical decisions. The objective is to transform this substantial land parcel into a development that serves the economic, social, and cultural needs of the community while maximizing its potential as a key asset for the city. BayCare Health System’s Strategic Expansion In February 2025, BayCare Health System, the largest healthcare provider in West Central Florida, acquired a 36-acre office property in Tampa Bay Park for $145 million or $245/SF, according to Hillsborough County public records. This acquisition includes three buildings and two parking garages adjacent to St. Joseph’s, St. Joseph’s Children’s, and St. Joseph’s Women’s hospitals. The purchase aims to consolidate services from leased offices and provide room for strategic growth, including the expansion of BayCare Medical Group physician practices. ​ New Industrial Development in Drew Park In response to the escalating demand for industrial space in Tampa’s Drew Park area, Florida ROI Commercial Property Brokerage is offering a new industrial development opportunity at 4421 N. Hubert Avenue. This project features up to 29,000 square feet of customizable small bay flex warehouse suites, with individual units ranging from 2,600 to 7,500 square feet. The property is strategically located near major highways and Tampa International Airport, providing excellent access for logistics and distribution operations. ​ Carter Henderson, Senior Associate at Florida ROI, is leading the leasing efforts for this development. Henderson brings extensive experience in the Tampa commercial real estate market, having successfully closed significant transactions such as a $5.85 million land deal in South Tampa.  The Drew Park warehouse project is designed to address the shortage of infill industrial spaces in the area, offering modern facilities tailored to meet the needs of businesses requiring proximity to transportation hubs and urban centers. The suites are currently available for pre-leasing, with occupancy anticipated in the near future. ​ Shifts in Migration Patterns and Economic Impacts in Florida Recent trends indicate a significant slowdown in domestic migration to Florida. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the state experienced a net domestic migration gain of approximately 64,000 residents, a stark decrease from the 314,000 net gain observed in 2022. This decline is attributed to factors such as rising housing costs, increased insurance premiums, and concerns about overcrowding.  Conversely, international migration has played a pivotal role in Florida’s population growth. From July 2023 to July 2024, the state welcomed over 411,000 international migrants, positioning Florida among the top states for foreign arrivals. This influx has been instrumental in offsetting the deceleration of domestic migration.​ However, recent trade tensions, particularly those involving the U.S. and Canada, have introduced new challenges. President Donald Trump’s implementation of tariffs has strained relations with Canada, a key economic partner and the largest foreign investor in Florida real estate. These tariffs have led to increased costs for building materials, notably lumber, which is essential for construction. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that such tariffs could raise the cost of a new home by approximately $9,200.  The deteriorating trade relations have also influenced Canadian investment patterns in Florida. Reports indicate that some Canadian investors are divesting from U.S. properties, including those in Florida, due to the unfavorable economic climate. Additionally, the weakening Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar has made American real estate investments less attractive, further contributing to this trend.​ These dynamics have placed the Florida real estate market in a precarious position. The combination of slowing domestic migration, reliance on international migrants, and strained foreign investment underscores the need for strategic economic planning to navigate these evolving challenges. Frequently Asked Questions Q: What happens next for the Tropicana Field site now that the Rays withdrew from the stadium project?A: Several developers have expressed interest in redeveloping the 86-acre site, with proposals ranging from a waterpark to mixed-use communities. The City of St. Petersburg is evaluating plans with input from the community. Q: How is BayCare Health System expanding in Tampa?A: BayCare acquired a 36-acre office property near its hospitals in Tampa Bay Park for $145 million to consolidate services and support future growth of its medical group. Q: What’s driving industrial real estate development in Tampa’s Drew Park area?A: High demand for infill warehouse space is prompting projects like Florida ROI’s new flex industrial development at 4421 N. Hubert Avenue, offering customizable units for logistics and distribution use. Looking to stay The post Tampa Bay Rays Stadium Withdrawal and Florida CRE Trends 2025 appeared first on Tampa Commercial Real Estate | Property Brokers.
Posted 8 April 2025 | 12:00 pm

9 Economic and Policy Threats Facing Florida Commercial Real Estate in 2025
Florida’s commercial real estate (CRE) and construction sectors have outperformed much of the country in recent years, fueled significantly by a massive influx of domestic migration post-COVID-19. As people and businesses relocated to Florida seeking favorable tax conditions, a robust economy, and an appealing lifestyle, the state’s commercial markets experienced remarkable growth and strong demand across multiple asset classes. However, several emerging concerns are popping up on our radar that could cause the industry to struggle to maintain its growth trajectory. We will be closely monitoring data for the remainder of 2025. 1. Rising Interest Rates Rising interest rates have become a significant concern for developers and investors alike. The 10-year rate peaked in January and has settled a little. However, higher borrowing costs directly impact profitability, making financing more expensive and challenging to secure. This environment slows development activity and can depress property values, making it critical for market participants to reevaluate project feasibility. 2. Insurance Costs and Availability Florida faces unique risks from hurricanes and flooding, causing insurance premiums to rise dramatically. Additionally, insurance companies exiting the Florida market have reduced available coverage options. These challenges substantially increase operating expenses for commercial real estate owners and developers, potentially affecting long-term viability and investment returns. 3. Labor Shortages and Rising Construction Costs The construction sector continues to grapple with a shortage of skilled labor, driving up wages and project timelines. Combined with higher material costs due to tariffs, this creates considerable headwinds for commercial construction projects. Such issues may delay project completion, impacting returns and reducing competitiveness. 4. Economic Uncertainty and Recession Risk Broader economic uncertainty and fears of recession negatively influence commercial real estate markets. Businesses become cautious about expansion, leasing activity slows, and investment activity declines. A downturn could substantially weaken demand across retail, office, and industrial sectors. 5. Housing Affordability and Workforce Housing Crisis Florida’s rapidly rising housing costs have created a substantial workforce housing shortage. Limited affordable housing impacts the ability of businesses to attract and retain essential employees, including those needed in construction. Addressing workforce housing challenges becomes increasingly critical for sustainable economic growth and development. State level laws passed in Tallahassee (Live Local Act, 2023) hope to address this issue. Is it enough to make a dent?  6. Infrastructure Constraints and Transportation Congestion The rapid growth of Florida’s urban centers exacerbates infrastructure constraints and congestion, affecting commercial real estate attractiveness. Traffic congestion and insufficient transportation infrastructure reduce accessibility and negatively influence property desirability and value. 7. Tariffs Tariffs continue to affect the commercial construction industry, driving up material costs and complicating supply chains. Representatives from The Related Group, a prominent Florida developer, recently discussed on CNBC significant challenges caused by tariffs, noting increased costs and reduced project profitability, leading to delays and reconsideration of project feasibility. 8. Migration Patterns A noticeable decrease in domestic migration to Florida, paired with uncertainties surrounding international migration—particularly due to the current administration’s tensions with Canada—poses risks to future demand growth. Canada, notably, is Florida’s largest source of foreign real estate buyers, and diplomatic or trade disruptions could further affect this important market segment. 9. Inflation It just won’t go away. Inflation further compounds these issues by increasing overall costs, potentially pushing CRE markets toward reduced profitability. In summary, Florida’s commercial real estate and construction markets face numerous intertwined concerns. At Florida ROI, we proactively monitor these market dynamics and provide timely, strategic advice to our client base. Our team regularly analyzes market trends, engages with industry experts, and remains attuned to economic indicators to ensure our clients are well-prepared and informed, positioning them for sustainable long-term growth and stability. Final Thoughts Florida’s commercial real estate sector isn’t short on opportunity—but it’s also facing more complexity than ever. With interest rates, insurance costs, labor issues, and broader economic factors all shifting in real time, staying ahead of the curve is critical. Investors, developers, and property owners who monitor these challenges closely and adapt their strategies will be best positioned to protect their assets and capture future growth. At Florida ROI, we’re committed to helping you navigate what’s ahead. If you’re evaluating your next move or looking for guidance tailored to today’s conditions, let’s talk. Our experienced team is here to provide clarity and insight—when it matters most. Frequently Asked Questions Q: How are rising interest rates affecting commercial real estate in Florida?A: Higher interest rates are making financing more expensive, which slows down development activity and can lower property values. Q: Why is insurance becoming a major concern for real estate investors in Florida?A: Due to hurricane and flood risks, insurance premiums have increased sharply, and fewer insurers are operating in the state, making coverage harder to find and afford. Q: What’s the impact of labor shortages on construction projects?A: Labor shortages are causing delays and increasing wages, which, along with higher material costs, make construction projects more expensive and less profitable. The post 9 Economic and Policy Threats Facing Florida Commercial Real Estate in 2025 appeared first on Tampa Commercial Real Estate | Property Brokers.
Posted 26 March 2025 | 1:49 pm

Tampa Industrial Real Estate Market Update – Rental Trends, Vacancy Rates, and Investment Insights
The Greater Tampa area continues to demonstrate resilience and robust growth in the industrial real estate market. Recent months have seen significant transactions, substantial new construction, and notable shifts in rental trends and tenant demand. Significant Transactions One of the most prominent recent deals was by Basis Industrial, a Delray Beach-based investment firm, that launched a fund to complete the acquisition. In January 2025, Basis Industrial entered into a purchase and sale agreement to acquire a substantial industrial portfolio in Tampa comprising 472,512 rentable square feet across 18 buildings. This acquisition is notable due to its strategic pricing—approximately 50% below replacement cost—highlighting Basis Industrial’s aggressive growth strategy and confidence in the Tampa market. Current Rents and CAM Industrial rental rates in Tampa have reached an all-time high, averaging approximately $12.50 per square foot. This represents an impressive increase of 69.1% over the past five years, driven by strong tenant demand and limited available inventory. Common Area Maintenance (CAM) charges have also seen upward pressure, typically ranging between $2.50 to $3.75 per square foot, depending on the property’s location, condition, and services included. Higher CAM rates have been particularly evident in newer industrial parks, reflecting the increased costs associated with property upkeep, security, and amenities. Construction and New Supply As of early 2025, the Greater Tampa area has approximately 5.6 million square feet of industrial space under construction. Notably, around 75% of this pipeline is already pre-leased, underscoring the strength of tenant demand. The construction activity primarily includes large build-to-suit and logistics-focused facilities. High Demand for Small-Bay Infill Despite extensive new construction, small-bay infill industrial properties (spaces generally under 20,000 square feet located close to population centers) remain heavily in demand, yet supply remains scarce. This segment has proven extremely attractive for smaller businesses, e-commerce operations, and service-oriented industries that require proximity to their customer bases. The scarcity of these spaces has created upward pressure on rents in this sector, sometimes exceeding market averages significantly. Vacancy Rates and Absorption The overall vacancy rate in the Tampa industrial market currently stands around 6.3%. Although this reflects a slight increase—primarily due to a surge of new deliveries—the vacancy rate remains historically low, indicating continued robust tenant demand. Absorption, which measures net space leased minus vacated space, remains strong. The Tampa market has consistently recorded annual absorption figures above 10 million square feet over the past five years, illustrating sustained leasing velocity and market confidence. Asking Rent Growth Industrial rents continue to escalate due to high tenant demand coupled with limited available space, particularly in the small-bay segment. This upward trend is anticipated to persist as tenants compete for the limited inventory, further driving asking rents upward across all industrial asset classes. Market Outlook The Tampa industrial real estate sector is positioned for ongoing growth. Investors and tenants alike are drawn to its strong fundamentals, robust economic environment, strategic geographical position, and significant logistical advantages. However, challenges remain, particularly in addressing the acute shortage of small-bay infill spaces, which may drive developers to innovate and explore creative solutions to meet market demands. As industrial real estate continues to thrive in the Greater Tampa area, stakeholders should monitor evolving market dynamics closely, particularly rent and CAM trends, vacancy rates, and absorption figures, to capitalize effectively on emerging opportunities. For investors looking to navigate Tampa’s evolving industrial real estate market, having the right expertise is crucial. Whether you’re searching for high-yield opportunities, need guidance on market trends, or want to secure prime industrial space before demand pushes prices even higher, Florida ROI is here to help. Contact Florida ROI today for expert insights, tailored investment strategies, and exclusive access to commercial real estate opportunities in the Greater Tampa area. Let’s turn market trends into profitable investments! Frequently Asked Questions Q: What is the current vacancy rate for industrial properties in Tampa?A: The vacancy rate stands at approximately 6.3%, reflecting strong tenant demand despite new developments. Q: How much have industrial rental rates increased in Tampa over the past five years?A: Rental rates have surged by 69.1%, now averaging around $12.50 per square foot. Q: Why is there high demand for small-bay industrial spaces in Tampa?A: Small-bay spaces under 20,000 square feet are in short supply and highly sought after by e-commerce, service industries, and small businesses needing close access to their customer base. The post Tampa Industrial Real Estate Market Update – Rental Trends, Vacancy Rates, and Investment Insights appeared first on Tampa Commercial Real Estate | Property Brokers.
Posted 14 March 2025 | 12:06 pm

Tampa’s Office Market Update: Big Leases, Falling Vacancy, and Sky-High Rents
Downtown Tampa’s office market continues to demonstrate resilience and growth, setting itself apart from national trends. As of the end of 2024, the overall vacancy rate in the Tampa Bay office market decreased to 20.0%, marking a 120 basis point decline year-over-year and reaching the lowest level since the second quarter of 2022. ​ Significant Developments and Transactions Rental Trends While Water Street’s developments initially led to rent increases, the pace of rent growth has recently decelerated. Despite this slowdown, starting rents in premier properties like 100 N Tampa continue to exceed $45 per square foot, reflecting sustained demand for high-quality office spaces. ​ Fisher Investments’ Significant Lease Highlighting the broader strength of the Tampa office market, Fisher Investments signed a record-setting lease in early 2025, one of the largest in the area. The wealth management firm is set to occupy three full buildings at the Renaissance Center, an office campus in Tampa, effectively doubling its regional footprint. This substantial commitment underscores the attractiveness of the Tampa market to major corporations, even beyond the downtown core. Submarket Performance: Lagging Areas While Downtown Tampa and Westshore continue to thrive, certain submarkets are experiencing challenges: National Context and Tampa’s Unique Position Across the United States, the office sector is showing signs of revival as CEOs increasingly encourage employees to return to physical workspaces. However, Tampa’s office market stands out as particularly robust. For instance, in the third quarter of 2024, Tampa’s Class A rental rates rose to an average of $35.55 per square foot, indicating strong demand for premium office spaces. ​ Final Thoughts Downtown Tampa’s office market is navigating a complex yet promising landscape. Declining vacancy rates, significant leasing activity, and a resurgence in investment signal a market on the rise. While challenges such as limited new construction and slowing rent growth persist, the submarket’s resilience and appeal remain evident. As 2025 unfolds, the continued evolution of Downtown Tampa’s office market will be one to watch for businesses and investors alike. Looking to invest or secure office space in Tampa? Contact Florida ROI today for expert guidance and tailored real estate solutions. Frequently Asked Questions Q: What is the current vacancy rate in Tampa’s office market?A: As of the end of 2024, Tampa’s office vacancy rate has dropped to 20.0%, marking a 120 basis point decline year-over-year. This is the lowest vacancy level since mid-2022, reflecting strong demand for premium office space. Q: What are the key factors driving office rent increases in Tampa?A: The rise in rental rates is fueled by high demand for Class A office spaces, significant new lease agreements, and continued investment in premier office locations like Downtown Tampa and Westshore. Properties like 100 N Tampa now command rents exceeding $45 per square foot, showcasing the strength of the market. Q: How does Tampa’s office market compare to other U.S. cities?A: Unlike many markets still recovering from the remote work shift, Tampa’s office sector is rebounding faster. Class A rental rates have climbed to $35.55 per square foot, and major companies like Fisher Investments are expanding their office presence, proving Tampa’s resilience and attractiveness for corporate tenants. The post Tampa’s Office Market Update: Big Leases, Falling Vacancy, and Sky-High Rents appeared first on Tampa Commercial Real Estate | Property Brokers.
Posted 10 March 2025 | 3:11 pm

How Seminole’s Industrial Property Market is Expanding
The Seminole commercial real estate sector is experiencing significant growth, especially in the industrial property market. With advancements in technology, increased population growth, and improved logistics, both seasoned investors and newcomers are flocking to this vibrant market. This article explores noteworthy factors contributing to the expansion of Seminole’s industrial properties, the investment opportunities available, and the emerging trends that shape this exciting area. The Growing Appeal of Seminole’s Industrial Sector Historically known for its beautiful residential neighborhoods, Seminole is transforming into a competitive industrial hub in Florida. A combination of its strategic location near major highways, proximity to Tampa Bay, and robust infrastructure has attracted businesses engaged in logistics, warehousing, and light manufacturing. In 2023, the demand for industrial real estate in Seminole has surged, with a reported 15% increase in leasing activity over the past year, based on local real estate analytics. Factors Driving Growth Strategic Location Seminole’s location offers significant advantages for logistics and distribution businesses. The area benefits from direct access to Interstate 275 along with its close proximity to both Tampa International Airport and the Port of Tampa. This connectivity acts as a catalyst for industrial investment, drawing companies aiming to optimize their supply chain and improve customer reach. Population Boom The Greater Tampa Bay area’s population growth has created a conducive environment for industrial expansion. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Pasco County, which includes parts of Seminole, saw a remarkable 14% population increase between 2010 and 2020. This influx of residents leads to higher demand for goods and services, further encouraging investments in the industrial sector to meet these needs. Infrastructure Development Recent upgrades to Seminole’s infrastructure have solidified its reputation as a prime location for industrial investments. The local government has actively allocated funds for road improvements and utility expansions, which accommodate new businesses. These upgrades not only support current tenants but also attract potential investors looking for stable industrial opportunities. Market Performance Indicators To gain further insight into Seminole’s industrial market performance, let’s examine key metrics that highlight its growth trajectory: Case Studies of Success in Seminole To illustrate the investment potential in Seminole’s industrial sector, we present two case studies showcasing success stories. Case Study 1: ABC Manufacturing ABC Manufacturing, a midsize company specializing in custom metalwork, recently moved into a new 50,000-square-foot facility in Seminole. Relocating from a downtown area to benefit from competitive rates and modern facilities led to a 25% reduction in operational costs for the company. Their strategic positioning and access to efficient transport routes have also enhanced their distribution capabilities, resulting in increased customer satisfaction. Case Study 2: GreenTech Innovations GreenTech Innovations, a leader in sustainable energy, secured a lease for a new 30,000-square-foot warehouse and lab space. They chose Seminole due to its cost-effectiveness and supportive environment for businesses. With this new facility, GreenTech is poised for significant growth, planning to hire an additional 50 employees in 2024. This case exemplifies how Seminole attracts innovative firms eager to capitalize on local talent and resources. Investment Opportunities in Seminole The evidence suggests that Seminole’s industrial real estate market offers lucrative investment opportunities. With attractive pricing, high demand, and growing investor interest, several areas stand out for potential investments: Final Thoughts The Seminole commercial real estate sector, particularly in industrial properties, is rapidly expanding. The blend of strategic location, positive infrastructure developments, and rising population all contribute to this growth. For investors, the potential to tap into emerging opportunities is immense. By focusing on warehousing, light manufacturing, and flexible lease options, astute investors can leverage Seminole’s unique market position for maximum returns. If you’re ready to explore investment options in this thriving market, connect with local experts who understand the Seminole commercial real estate landscape. Looking for strategic real estate solutions? Connect with Florida ROI today! Frequently Asked Questions Q: What are the current vacancy rates in Seminole’s industrial market?A: The current vacancy rates hover around 4.5%, indicating a strong demand that exceeds supply, creating a competitive industrial market. Q: How has population growth affected the industrial sector in Seminole?A: The substantial population increase in the Greater Tampa Bay area has spurred demand for goods and services, driving investments in industrial properties to address this need. Q: What types of industrial properties are investors focusing on in Seminole?A: Investors are particularly interested in warehousing, light assembly manufacturing units, and flexible space solutions, responding to market demands. Q: Are there any recent developments in Seminole’s industrial real estate?A: Yes, the Seminole Logistics Center, spanning over 200,000 square feet, reflects notable recent developments that showcase the market’s resilience and growth potential. Q: What trends should investors be aware of in Seminole’s industrial market?A: Investors should monitor the rise of e-commerce, ongoing infrastructure improvements, and increasing interest from tech firms looking for innovative locations to inform their investment strategies. The post How Seminole’s Industrial Property Market is Expanding appeared first on Tampa Commercial Real Estate | Property Brokers.
Posted 5 March 2025 | 12:00 pm